NewSpace RFP

LeoLabs Achieved

Additionally, LeoLabs secured a second AFWERX SBIR award in 2024 to develop a next-generation S-Band radar system that is set to debut in early 2025.

LeoLabs press release (PR Newswire) · Jan 16, 2025

Predicts

A next-generation S-band radar system debuts in early 2025

Due

Early 2025

Where it stands

The Scout radar class was unveiled on April 7, 2025, at the edge of the stated window. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

The Scout announcement →

Lockheed Martin Space Achieved

Lockheed Martin said Sept. 22 that it will complete delivery this month of the 21 spacecraft for this mission.

SpaceNews · Sep 22, 2025

Predicts

All 21 Tranche 1 Transport Layer satellites delivered by end of September 2025 and launched in October 2025

Due

October 2025

Where it stands

The 21 satellites launched from Vandenberg on October 15, 2025. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Their record here → The outcome record →

Blue Origin Missed

in the next couple of weeks

Jacqueline Cortese, Senior Director of Civil Space · Spaceflight Now, from the von Braun Symposium · Oct 28, 2025

Predicts

The first Blue Moon Mk1 cargo lander, carrying NASA instruments, launches on New Glenn around November 2025

Due

November 2025

Where it stands

The lander has still not launched. It is in environmental testing with a launch listed as no earlier than the first quarter of 2027, more than a year past the stated timeframe. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Blue Origin's record →

Moog Space and Defense Unverified

on track to manufacture EMA flight hardware this fall

Moog press release · Jun 30, 2025

Predicts

The expanded East Aurora facility manufactures electromechanical actuation flight hardware by fall 2025

Due

Fall 2025

Where it stands

The stated season has passed and no public record confirms or refutes first flight-hardware production. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Moog's record →

Rocket Lab Missed

All in all, we continue to push extremely hard for end-of-year launch.

Peter Beck, Founder and CEO · Q2 2025 earnings call (Motley Fool transcript) · Aug 7, 2025

Predicts

Neutron's first launch before the end of 2025

Due

End of 2025

Where it stands

On November 10, 2025 the company moved the debut to 2026, saying Neutron would fly when it was confident the rocket was ready. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Spaceflight Now on the delay → Rocket Lab's record →

United Launch Alliance Missed

We expect to hit our twice-a-month tempo before the end of the year, so that as we roll into 2026 that forecast is somewhere between 20 and 25 launches.

Tory Bruno, President and CEO · Aerospace America · Aug 7, 2025

Predicts

A two-launches-per-month Vulcan tempo before the end of 2025

Due

End of 2025

Where it stands

Vulcan flew once in 2025 and did not fly again until February 2026. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

ULA's record →

Amazon Leo (Project Kuiper) Missed

Project Kuiper will deliver high-speed, low-latency internet to virtually any location on the planet, and we expect to begin delivering service to customers later this year.

About Amazon · Apr 28, 2025

Predicts

Customer satellite internet service begins before the end of 2025

Due

Late 2025

Where it stands

No customer service began in 2025. An enterprise beta opened in April 2026 under the Amazon Leo name, with commercial launch guided to mid-2026. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

The Next Web on the beta and mid-2026 target →

Arianespace Missed

We have a very steep ramp-up plan. This year we target to achieve five flights of Ariane 6, the first one being in February, and then we want to reach our target cadence as soon as possible. By target cadence, I mean between 9 and 10 launches per year.

David Cavaillolès, CEO · SpaceNews · Feb 11, 2025

Predicts

Five Ariane 6 launches completed during calendar 2025, starting with a February flight

Due

End of 2025

Where it stands

Ariane 6 flew four times in 2025, one short, and the first flight slipped from February to March. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Their record here → The outcome record →

Avio Missed

The company is planning four launches of the Vega C in 2025 using current infrastructure, but he said the new integration building will support an increase to six launches annually in the future.

Giulio Ranzo, CEO · SpaceNews · Dec 19, 2024

Predicts

Four Vega C launches completed during calendar 2025

Due

End of 2025

Where it stands

Vega C flew three times in 2025, one short of the four planned. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Their record here → The outcome record →

Ursa Major Unverified

Work on the site is already underway, and we will begin testing at the site in Q4 2025.

Ursa Major press release (PR Newswire) · Sep 10, 2025

Predicts

Solid rocket motor testing begins at the new test and qualification site in Q4 2025

Due

Q4 2025

Where it stands

The stated quarter has passed; the public record does not confirm or refute first testing. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Lockheed Martin Space Missed

This means the new satellite and its mission payload has the green light for further system level testing, which includes a focus on environmental testing, as it moves toward a 2025 launch.

Lockheed Martin press release · Dec 10, 2024

Predicts

First Next-Gen OPIR GEO satellite launches in 2025

Due

During 2025

Where it stands

The satellite was delivered in September 2025 but stayed tied to the grounded Vulcan; launch moved into 2026. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Their record here → The outcome record →

York Space Systems Unverified

With five unique missions launching this year, we're scaling innovation to meet customer requirements and demonstrate what a truly responsive space mission provider can do.

Michael Lajczok, Chief Technology Officer · York Space Systems press release (PR Newswire) · Jun 10, 2025

Predicts

York launches five unique missions during calendar 2025

Due

During 2025

Where it stands

The stated year has passed; several York missions flew in 2025 but the public record does not confirm all five. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Their record here →

Slingshot Aerospace Missed

TraCSS.gov is expected to be online and ready to support the transition of all commercial users from space-track.org in late 2025.

Slingshot Aerospace press release · Nov 26, 2024

Predicts

TraCSS.gov online and supporting the transition of commercial users from space-track.org

Due

Late 2025

Where it stands

The Office of Space Commerce says TraCSS began accepting registrations in early 2026, past the stated window; by July it listed 66 pilot users. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

The TraCSS program page →

EnduroSat Unverified

We are already seeing significantly larger demand for 2025/2026. The plan is to deliver 120 units, minimum, by the end of the year.

Raycho Raychev, Founder and CEO · SpaceNews · May 27, 2025

Predicts

At least 120 satellite units delivered during calendar 2025

Due

End of 2025

Where it stands

The stated year has passed and no public record confirms or refutes the delivery count. The company passed 100 total satellites deployed in July 2026. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

SSC (Swedish Space Corporation) Missed

SSC and South Korean rocket company Perigee Aerospace Inc. have signed a collaborative agreement to launch satellites jointly from Esrange Space Center in northern Sweden, starting 2025. Perigee's Blue Whale 1 microlauncher will be the first-ever orbital rocket launched from Esrange.

SSC press release · May 7, 2024

Predicts

Perigee's Blue Whale 1 begins launching satellites from Esrange in 2025

Due

Starting 2025

Where it stands

No orbital launch from Esrange has been recorded through the middle of 2026. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Isar Aerospace Missed

This qualification flight is a deliberate step toward delivering sovereign access to space for Europe and allied nations. Just ten months after proving that launch vehicles can be designed, built, and launched from continental European soil, we're ready to fly again.

Daniel Metzler, CEO and co-founder · Isar Aerospace press release · Jan 16, 2026

Predicts

Spectrum's second flight, the qualification flight for commercial service, launches on or shortly after January 21, 2026

Due

Late January 2026

Where it stands

A pressurization valve scrubbed the January attempt and the window did not reopen until mid-June, nearly five months later. Spectrum's later flight is in our record. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Spectrum's flight in our record → Isar's record →

Hadrian Achieved

Both the Arizona site and Hadrian's new corporate HQ are slated to be fully operational by January 2026—just six months from now

Hadrian blog, Series C announcement · Jul 17, 2025

Predicts

Factory 3 in Mesa, Arizona and the new headquarters fully operational by January 2026

Due

January 2026

Where it stands

Factory 3 opened in Mesa on January 29, described as already in production. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

The ribbon cutting → Hadrian's record →

AAC Clyde Space Missed

Our long-term trajectory remains clear. The updated guidance mainly reflects timing in the award of one major programme and an issue between a customer and a supplier.

Luis Gomes, CEO · AAC Clyde Space press release (beQuoted) · Nov 6, 2025

Predicts

FY2025 net sales about 10% below 2024, positive full-year EBITDA

Due

FY 2025 results

Where it stands

Net sales fell 16.3%, deeper than the roughly 10% guided; the positive-EBITDA half of the guidance held, at SEK 17.5 million. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

The year-end report →

GomSpace Achieved

Our operational execution remains strong, and we are on track to deliver strong revenue and EBITDA margin for 2025.

Carsten Drachmann, CEO · GomSpace press release · Dec 19, 2025

Predicts

FY2025 revenue in the upper half of 420-450 million SEK and EBITDA margin in the upper half of the guided range

Due

FY 2025 results

Where it stands

Revenue came in at 441.8 million SEK, up 72%, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 12% at the high end of the range. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

The Q4 report →

BlackSky Missed

the Company is maintaining its full-year 2025 guidance of revenue between $125 million and $142 million, adjusted EBITDA between $14 million and $22 million, and capital expenditures between $60 million and $70 million.

BlackSky press release · May 8, 2025

Predicts

Full-year 2025 revenue of at least $125 million

Due

FY 2025 results

Where it stands

Full-year 2025 revenue came in at $106.6 million, below the maintained range. The 2026 guidance was reset to $120 million to $145 million. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

The full-year results → BKSY on the business desk →

Velo3D Missed

Management expects the following for fiscal year 2025: Revenue in the range of $50 million to $60 million.

SEC EDGAR, Q4/FY2024 results exhibit · Mar 31, 2025

Predicts

Fiscal 2025 revenue between $50 million and $60 million

Due

FY 2025 results

Where it stands

Full-year 2025 revenue came in at $46 million, below the range, and the guidance had been reaffirmed as late as November. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

The FY2025 results → VLD on the business desk →

AST SpaceMobile Missed

We continue to expect launches planned every one to two months on average, starting with our first New Glenn launch expected in March.

Abel Avellan, Chairman and CEO · Q4 2025 earnings call (Motley Fool transcript) · Mar 2, 2026

Predicts

A first New Glenn launch of Block 2 BlueBirds in March 2026, then a launch every one to two months on average

Due

March 2026

Where it stands

The New Glenn flight went on April 19, not in March, and its upper stage left BlueBird 7 in an orbit too low to save. The satellite was lost. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

The April 19 launch failure in our record → Spaceflight Now on the wrong orbit →

Stoke Space Unverified

Launch Complex 14 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida, which is scheduled for activation in early 2026.

Stoke Space press release · Oct 8, 2025

Predicts

Launch Complex 14 at Cape Canaveral is activated and ready for Nova operations in early 2026

Due

Early 2026

Where it stands

The stated window has passed; the public record does not yet show the pad active, and does not say it is not. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Thales Alenia Space Achieved

The IOD-2 satellite is preparing for a launch scheduled for March 2026.

Thales Alenia Space website · Feb 20, 2026

Predicts

Celeste IOD-2 satellite launches in March 2026

Due

March 2026

Where it stands

IOD-1 and IOD-2 flew on an Electron on March 28. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Their record here → The outcome record →

CesiumAstro Missed

The company is self-funding the build and launch of the first Element satellite to demonstrate the technology, targeted to launch in the fourth quarter of 2025 or the first quarter of 2026.

Via Satellite · Oct 1, 2024

Predicts

The first Element demonstration satellite launches by the end of Q1 2026

Due

Q4 2025 or Q1 2026

Where it stands

The window passed without a launch; in early March the company was still seeking FCC approval for Element-1. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

The FCC filing coverage → CesiumAstro's record →

NASA Artemis program Achieved

The launch window could open as early as the fifth of February, but we want to emphasise that safety is our top priority.

Lakiesha Hawkins, Acting Deputy Associate Administrator · Al Jazeera, from a Johnson Space Center press conference · Sep 23, 2025

Predicts

Artemis II flies its crewed lunar flyby in a window opening February 5, 2026, and no later than April 2026

Due

No later than April 2026

Where it stands

The February window passed, and the April backstop held: Artemis II launched April 1 and splashed down April 10 after the flyby. The flight is in our record. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Artemis II in our record →

Lockheed Martin Space Achieved

Scheduled to launch in early 2026, Artemis II and the Orion spacecraft will host NASA astronauts Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch and Canadian astronaut Jeremy Hansen.

Lockheed Martin press release · May 1, 2025

Predicts

Artemis II launches with crew aboard Orion in early 2026

Due

Early 2026

Where it stands

Artemis II launched on April 1 at the edge of the stated window; the flight is in our record. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

In our record → The outcome record →

LeoLabs Achieved

LeoLabs is on track to operationalize its first containerized Scout at a site in Hawaii in early 2026

LeoLabs press release (PR Newswire) · Jan 27, 2026

Predicts

First containerized Scout radar operational in Hawaii in early 2026

Due

Early 2026

Where it stands

The first fielded Scout-S was announced as deployed and operational in June, observing satellites within hours of activation, a little past the stated window. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

The deployment announcement →

Rocket Lab Achieved

We expect revenue in the first quarter to range between $185,000,000 and $200,000,000.

Adam Spice, CFO · Q4 2025 earnings call (Motley Fool transcript) · Feb 26, 2026

Predicts

Q1 2026 revenue between $185 million and $200 million

Due

Q1 2026 results

Where it stands

Reported $200.3 million on May 7, at the top of the range and slightly past it. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

The results announcement → RKLB on the business desk →

AST SpaceMobile Achieved

The company is currently in production through BlueBird 32, with BlueBird 8 to 10 expected to be ready to ship in approximately 30 days

Form 8-K filed the day after the launch failure · Apr 20, 2026

Predicts

BlueBird 8, 9 and 10 ready to ship around mid-May 2026, keeping the deployment plan alive after the loss

Due

Mid-May 2026

Where it stands

The three satellites flew on a Falcon 9 on June 17, about a month later than the shipping date implied, after the company moved the mission off New Glenn. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

The June 17 flight in our record →

Vast Missed

We're progressing on track aligned with our scheduled launch of Haven-1 in May 2026. We will complete the manufacturing and testing of the flight primary structure in July 2025...

Spaceflight Now · May 7, 2025

Predicts

Haven-1, the first commercial space station module, launches on a Falcon 9 in May 2026

Due

May 2026

Where it stands

In January the company moved the launch to no earlier than the first quarter of 2027, citing system integration taking longer than planned. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Payload on the delay →

Apex Missed

Flying on one of Apex's commercial off-the-shelf satellite platforms, Project Shadow is scheduled to launch in June 2026.

Apex blog · Oct 22, 2025

Predicts

Project Shadow launches in June 2026

Due

June 2026

Where it stands

The mission flew about a month past the stated date, in July. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Their record here → The outcome record →

ATLAS Space Operations Unverified

The station is expected to enter full operational service for commercial and government clients by June 2026.

SatNews · Mar 11, 2026

Predicts

The American Samoa ground station fully operational by June 2026

Due

By June 2026

Where it stands

The stated month has passed and no public record confirms the station entered service. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Velo3D Missed

Reaffirms expectation to be EBITDA positive in the first half of 2026

SEC EDGAR, Q3 2025 results exhibit · Nov 10, 2025

Predicts

EBITDA turns positive in the first half of 2026

Due

First half of 2026

Where it stands

With the FY2025 results the company moved the target to the second half of 2026. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

The revised target →

Hadrian Missed

Over the next year, Hadrian plans to announce and scale four to five additional facilities

Hadrian blog, Series C announcement · Jul 17, 2025

Predicts

Four to five additional facilities announced and scaling by mid-2026

Due

By mid-2026

Where it stands

Announcements are public by nature, and one facility, the Navy-partnered Factory 4, was announced and opened within the stated year. The four-to-five figure did not arrive. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Factory 4 opening →

AAC Clyde Space Pending

During the next six months, we expect to launch fifteen satellites for ourselves and our customers. This includes the first two VIREON™ Earth observation satellites, an important step in expanding our data offering.

Luis Gomes, CEO · AAC Clyde Space year-end report (beQuoted) · Feb 19, 2026

Predicts

Fifteen AAC-built satellites launched between February and August 2026, including VIREON-1 and VIREON-2

Due

By late August 2026

Where it stands

VIREON-1 and VIREON-2 flew on Transporter-16 on March 30. The fifteen-satellite tally is not yet checkable from public records. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

The VIREON launch →

Impulse Space Pending

The first of these missions will be the inaugural launch of Helios and is targeted for mid-2026.

Impulse Space press release · Nov 14, 2024

Predicts

The first Helios kick-stage mission flies on a Falcon 9, carrying a Mira vehicle toward GEO

Due

Mid-2026

Where it stands

The middle of 2026 is here and our launch record holds no Helios flight yet. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Impulse Space's record →

Apex Pending

The mission is slated to fire demonstration-class space-based interceptors on orbit within the next year.

Apex blog · Oct 22, 2025

Predicts

On-orbit firing of demonstration space-based interceptors within a year of the October 2025 announcement

Due

By October 2026

Where it stands

The host platform reached orbit in July. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Their record here →

AST SpaceMobile At risk

We remain on track to achieve our target of deploying 45 to 60 satellites into low Earth orbit by the end of this year, with current expectations closer to 60 satellites ready to ship and 45 satellites in orbit.

Abel Avellan, Chairman and CEO · Q4 2025 earnings call (Motley Fool transcript) · Mar 2, 2026

Predicts

About 45 Block 2 BlueBird satellites in orbit by the end of 2026, with up to 60 ready to ship

Due

End of 2026

Where it stands

BlueBird 7 was lost in the April 19 launch failure. The company reaffirmed the target the next day, and the June 17 Falcon 9 flight delivered three more satellites; reaching 45 in orbit by December requires a pace the record has not yet shown. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

The April 19 failure → The June 17 recovery flight → The next batch on the schedule →

SpaceX At risk

Starship departs for Mars at the end of next year, carrying Optimus. If those landings go well, then human landings may start as soon as 2029, although 2031 is more likely.

Elon Musk, CEO · Digital Trends, quoting Musk's X post · Mar 15, 2025

Predicts

An uncrewed Starship departs for Mars carrying an Optimus robot by the end of 2026

Due

End of 2026

Where it stands

Our launch schedule holds no Mars departure, and the Earth-Mars transfer window this claim depends on closes at the end of the year. Starship has flown thirteen times; none of the flights left Earth orbit. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Starship Flight 13 in our record → The launch calendar →

Rocket Lab Pending

Neutron's first launch is now targeted for Q4 2026.

Peter Beck, Founder and CEO · Q4 2025 earnings call (Motley Fool transcript) · Feb 26, 2026

Predicts

Neutron's first launch in the fourth quarter of 2026

Due

Q4 2026

Where it stands

The revised target after a Stage 1 tank manufacturing defect forced design changes. This is the second stated date for the same debut; the first is above, marked missed. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Rocket Lab's record →

Blue Origin At risk

We want to be hardware rich. So, you know, we want to try to keep building as fast as we can, and then with practice I think our launch cadence can go up.

Dave Limp, CEO · Space Explored · Nov 29, 2025

Predicts

A double-digit New Glenn launch count, around 12 flights, during 2026

Due

During 2026

Where it stands

The vehicle assigned to the fourth flight exploded during ground testing on May 28, and a month later the company was still working out why. The April flight in our record reached orbit but lost its payload. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

The April New Glenn flight in our record → TechCrunch on the test explosion →

Firefly Aerospace Pending

Blue Ghost mission two, targeted to launch next year, is well underway.

Jason Kim, CEO · Q3 2025 earnings call (Motley Fool transcript) · Nov 12, 2025

Predicts

Blue Ghost Mission 2 launches to the far side of the Moon during 2026

Due

During 2026

Where it stands

Not launched as of the company's May results, which reported progress on the mission's deployment hardware. Five months remain against the stated year. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

The Q1 2026 results filing → Firefly's record →

United Launch Alliance At risk

We expect to hit our twice-a-month tempo before the end of the year, so that as we roll into 2026 that forecast is somewhere between 20 and 25 launches.

Tory Bruno, President and CEO · Aerospace America · Aug 7, 2025

Predicts

Between 20 and 25 ULA launches during calendar 2026

Due

During 2026

Where it stands

Our record holds five ULA flights since February. Reaching twenty in the year would need a pace the record has not shown in any quarter. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

ULA's record → The launch scorecard →

Sierra Space Pending

Sierra Space remains focused on completing the final phases of testing and preparation to ensure Dream Chaser's successful first flight, planned for late 2025 and now anticipated in late 2026 due to launch vehicle availability.

Spaceflight Now · Sep 26, 2025

Predicts

Dream Chaser Tenacity flies its first orbital mission, recast as a free flyer without an ISS docking

Due

Late 2026

Where it stands

The mission depends on a Vulcan ride, and Vulcan has flown once this year. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

ULA's record →

Intuitive Machines Pending

IM-3 is progressing well, as all robotic mechanisms from our Maryland facility delivered in the fourth quarter. Now our team is working on lander assembly, integration, and test for the mission later this year.

Stephen Altemus, President and CEO · Q4 2025 earnings call (Motley Fool transcript) · Mar 19, 2026

Predicts

The IM-3 lunar lander mission, carrying the first lunar data relay satellite, launches later in 2026

Due

Second half of 2026

Where it stands

Stated alongside 2026 revenue guidance of $900 million to $1 billion. Nothing on our launch calendar names it yet. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

LUNR on the business desk →

Globalstar Pending

Continue advancing our satellite constellation roadmap with two planned launches during 2026 and further development of next-generation satellites

Paul E. Jacobs, CEO, in the annual report · Globalstar 2025 annual report (via StockTitan) · Apr 2, 2026

Predicts

Two satellite launches during 2026 for the C-3 constellation program

Due

During 2026

Where it stands

Neither launch has appeared in our record so far this year. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

GSAT on the business desk →

Relativity Space At risk

Relativity said it is planning a first launch of Terran R as soon as late 2026 from its launch complex at Cape Canaveral, Florida.

SpaceNews · Mar 10, 2025

Predicts

Terran R makes its first launch from Cape Canaveral by late 2026

Due

Late 2026

Where it stands

June coverage of the NASA Mars award gave no first-launch date and noted fundraising strain before the rocket reaches the pad. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Relativity's record →

Astranis Pending

The first satellites are set to launch in 2026.

Via Satellite · Apr 10, 2024

Predicts

The first Omega MicroGEO satellites launch to geostationary orbit during 2026

Due

During 2026

Where it stands

Five months remain in the stated year; our record holds no Omega launch. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Astranis's record →

Arianespace Pending

We think at this cadence, taking into account the performance of Ariane 6, we can deliver a lot.

David Cavaillolès, CEO · European Spaceflight · Nov 6, 2025

Predicts

Six to eight Ariane 6 launches completed during calendar 2026

Due

During 2026

Where it stands

Three flights had flown by mid-June; reaching six needs a fast second half. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Their record here →

L3Harris / Aerojet Rocketdyne Pending

The aim is to complete construction in the third or fourth quarter of 2026 and then begin moving into production in early 2027, Scott Alexander, L3Harris' missile solutions president, told reporters.

Scott Alexander, President, Missile Solutions, L3Harris · Defense News · May 22, 2025

Predicts

Virginia solid rocket motor facility construction finished in Q3 or Q4 2026, production starting early 2027

Due

Q3 or Q4 2026

Where it stands

Construction continues at the Orange, Virginia campus. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Their record here →

Agile Space Industries Pending

Agile has about $60M in contracted backlog, and has won contracts that, together, could double the company's revenue this year, according to Pearson.

Chris Pearson, CEO · Payload · Feb 18, 2026

Predicts

Agile's 2026 revenue roughly doubles versus 2025

Due

During 2026

Where it stands

Stated with the Series A, alongside about $60 million of contracted backlog. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Lockheed Martin Space At risk

T2TL Beta will consist of 72 satellites and will be deployed into orbit over a series of launches beginning in 2026 and will undergo a continuous checkout and commissioning process for acceptance into operations.

Lockheed Martin press release (PR Newswire) · Aug 21, 2023

Predicts

Tranche 2 Transport Layer Beta launches begin in 2026

Due

During 2026

Where it stands

The Space Development Agency now anticipates Tranche 2 launches starting in fiscal 2027. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Their record here → The outcome record →

Northrop Grumman Achieved

Northrop Grumman's SpaceLogistics subsidiary is eyeing a 2026 launch for its next-generation satellite servicing vehicle, the Mission Robotic Vehicle (MRV).

SpaceNews · Nov 14, 2024

Predicts

Mission Robotic Vehicle launches in 2026

Due

During 2026

Where it stands

The MRV flew on a Falcon 9 on July 21; the flight is in our record. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

In our record → The outcome record →

Apex Pending

The target delivery timeline: Five platforms in 2024, 20 platforms in 2025, 50 platforms in 2026

Payload · Dec 14, 2023

Predicts

Apex delivers five satellite platforms in 2024, 20 in 2025, and 50 in 2026

Due

During 2026

Where it stands

The company does not publish delivery counts, so the 2024 and 2025 steps of the ramp are not publicly checkable either. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Their record here →

Slingshot Aerospace Pending

The platform will evolve throughout 2026 to support advanced maneuver intelligence, predictive analytics, and scenario-based planning capabilities designed to meet increasingly complex mission demands.

Slingshot Aerospace press release · Apr 14, 2026

Predicts

Portal ships maneuver intelligence, predictive analytics and scenario planning during 2026

Due

During 2026

Where it stands

A product roadmap stated at the Portal launch in April. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

SSC (Swedish Space Corporation) Superseded

Swedish Space Corporation (SSC) and U.S. space transportation company Firefly Aerospace have signed a collaborative agreement to jointly launch satellites with Firefly's Alpha rocket from the newly inaugurated spaceport at Esrange Space Center in Sweden, starting in 2026.

SSC press release · Jun 27, 2024

Predicts

Firefly Alpha performs its first orbital launch from Esrange during 2026

Due

During 2026

Where it stands

A June 2026 joint milestone release states the pad is in final construction with the first launch now targeted for 2028. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

The revised target → Firefly's record →

Gravitics Superseded

Gravitics expects to demonstrate Orbital Carrier's ability to operate in space and deploy assets on orbit as early as next year.

Payload · Mar 26, 2025

Predicts

Orbital Carrier demonstrated in space during 2026

Due

As early as 2026

Where it stands

By April 2026 the company's stated plan moved to a pathfinder mission in 2027 with a Viper OTX flight in 2028. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

The revised plan → Gravitics's record →

Honeywell Aerospace Achieved

Honeywell (NASDAQ: HON) today announced its updated business segment structure ahead of the planned separation of its Aerospace Technologies business, expected in the second half of 2026

Honeywell press release (PR Newswire) · Oct 22, 2025

Predicts

Honeywell Aerospace separates into an independent public company in the second half of 2026

Due

Second half of 2026

Where it stands

The spin-off completed on June 29, a day inside the first half, ahead of the stated window. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

The completed spin-off →

Planet Labs Pending

For the full fiscal year 2027, we expect revenue to be between $415,000,000 and $440,000,000, representing approximately 39% growth at the midpoint.

Ashley Johnson, CFO · Q4 FY2026 earnings call (Motley Fool transcript) · Mar 19, 2026

Predicts

Fiscal 2027 revenue between $415 million and $440 million

Due

FY 2027, ends January 2027

Where it stands

Guidance set after a year of large government agreements in Europe. The fiscal year runs to the end of January. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

PL on the business desk →

Planet Labs Pending

We are scaling our Pelican fleet with multiple launches scheduled this year.

Will Marshall, Co-founder and CEO · Q4 FY2026 earnings call (Motley Fool transcript) · Mar 19, 2026

Predicts

Multiple Pelican high-resolution satellite launches during the fiscal year

Due

During FY 2027

Where it stands

Stated with a manufacturing expansion in Berlin intended to roughly double Pelican build capacity. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

PL on the business desk →

L3Harris / Aerojet Rocketdyne Pending

As we look to 2026, our investments in technology and capacity along with a record backlog and strong demand signals give us confidence to deliver strong results.

Christopher Kubasik, Chairman and CEO, L3Harris · L3Harris Q4 2025 earnings release (via TradingView) · Jan 29, 2026

Predicts

L3Harris reports FY2026 revenue of $23-23.5 billion, diluted EPS of $11.30-11.50, and free cash flow of about $3.0 billion

Due

FY 2026, reported January 2027

Where it stands

Initiated with the 2025 results. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Their record here →

Teledyne Space Pending

Based on its current outlook, the company's management believes that full year 2026 GAAP diluted earnings per share will be in the range of $20.73 to $20.99.

SEC EDGAR, Teledyne Q2 2026 earnings exhibit · Jul 22, 2026

Predicts

Full-year 2026 GAAP diluted EPS of $20.73 to $20.99

Due

FY 2026 results

Where it stands

Raised guidance after record second-quarter orders, with the strongest organic growth in imaging for space. Corporate-level guidance; Teledyne does not break out space alone. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

AAC Clyde Space Pending

Net sales: SEK 440-510 M; EBITDA margin: approximately 10 percent; Cash flow from operating activities: positive

AAC Clyde Space press release (beQuoted) · Apr 28, 2026

Predicts

FY2026 net sales of SEK 440-510 million at roughly 10 percent EBITDA margin

Due

FY 2026, reported early 2027

Where it stands

First formal 2026 guidance, resting on backlog and the EPS-Sterna program. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

GomSpace Pending

Revenue: 540-640 M.SEK; EBITDA margin: 5% to 12%

GomSpace Q4 2025 report · Feb 19, 2026

Predicts

FY2026 revenue between 540 and 640 million SEK with an EBITDA margin of 5% to 12%

Due

FY 2026, reported early 2027

Where it stands

Over 30% growth at the midpoint, set after a year in which revenue grew 72%. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Firefly Aerospace Pending

Firefly expects 2026 full-year revenue to be between $420 million and $450 million.

SEC EDGAR, Form 8-K exhibit · May 4, 2026

Predicts

Full-year 2026 revenue between $420 million and $450 million

Due

FY 2026, reported early 2027

Where it stands

Restated with the first-quarter results, which the company called a record quarter. The full-year report decides it. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Firefly's record →

Redwire Pending

For the full year ended December 31, 2026, Redwire is forecasting revenues of $450 million to $500 million.

Redwire press release · Feb 25, 2026

Predicts

Full-year 2026 revenue between $450 million and $500 million

Due

FY 2026, reported early 2027

Where it stands

The first full-year forecast after the Edge Autonomy acquisition. The annual report decides it. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

RDW on the business desk →

Axiom Space At risk

Because we're reusing 85% of the stuff—and in some cases simplifying [the build] because we won't need all of the life support for the first module—we can still launch that first module in early '27

Matt Ondler, Chief Strategy Officer · Payload · Dec 18, 2024

Predicts

Axiom's first station module, the Payload Power Thermal Module, launches to the ISS in early 2027

Due

Early 2027

Where it stands

Later coverage of the module says late 2027, with a free-flying two-module station expected by 2028. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Axiom's record →

Avio Pending

Net Revenues: EUR 560 - 590 million ... EBITDA Reported: EUR 27 - 35 million ... Net Income: EUR 8 - 13 million

Avio press release · Mar 12, 2026

Predicts

Avio reports FY2026 net revenues of EUR 560-590 million and net income of EUR 8-13 million

Due

FY 2026, reported early 2027

Where it stands

Set with a record order backlog of EUR 2.17 billion. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Velo3D Pending

Expects 2026 revenue between $60 million and $70 million

SEC EDGAR, Q4/FY2025 results exhibit · Mar 24, 2026

Predicts

FY2026 revenue of $60-70 million with positive EBITDA in the second half

Due

FY 2026, reported early 2027

Where it stands

Set alongside the missed 2025 range above, and reaffirmed in May. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

VLD on the business desk →

Northrop Grumman Pending

After launch this summer, the MRV will take roughly one year to reach its orbit.

Via Satellite · May 19, 2026

Predicts

MRV reaches its operational GEO orbit roughly one year after its summer 2026 launch

Due

Mid-2027

Where it stands

An electric-propulsion transit of about a year to reach the servicing orbit. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Their record here →

Airbus Defence and Space Pending

New company could be operational in 2027, subject to regulatory approvals and satisfaction of other closing conditions.

Airbus press release (joint with Leonardo and Thales) · Oct 23, 2025

Predicts

The combined European space company (Project Bromo) is operational in 2027

Due

During 2027

Where it stands

Subject to regulatory approvals and closing conditions. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Their record here →

Thales Alenia Space Pending

Once the full Celeste demonstrator constellation is in orbit by 2027, ESA will be able to assess how a LEO navigation layer can operate alongside Galileo and other MEO navigation systems.

Thales Alenia Space website · Feb 20, 2026

Predicts

Full Celeste demonstrator constellation in orbit by 2027

Due

By 2027

Where it stands

Thales Alenia Space builds five of the demonstrator spacecraft. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Their record here →

LeoLabs Pending

Under the selection, LeoLabs will develop, deploy, and operate a Seeker-class Ultra High Frequency (UHF) planar Direct Radiating Array (DRA) radar in the Indo-Pacific region by 2027.

LeoLabs press release · Mar 14, 2025

Predicts

A Seeker-class UHF radar deployed and operating in the Indo-Pacific region

Due

By 2027

Where it stands

Backed by a $60 million strategic funding increase split between AFRL, other government sponsors and private capital. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

KSAT Pending

KSAT has officially signed a contract for launch with SpaceX, securing the ride to orbit for the first satellites of Hyper. The mission is targeting launch in late 2027, marking a major milestone in the project's journey from design to space.

KSAT news release · Dec 10, 2025

Predicts

The first Hyper relay satellites launch on a SpaceX vehicle in late 2027

Due

Late 2027

Where it stands

The launch contract is signed and the Hyperion demonstration mission carries the same stated window. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Gravitics Pending

These will be tested in the company's first mission targeted for 2027, to be followed by a Viper OTX mission in 2028 to demonstrate on-orbit mobility by delivering a third-party payload to a higher-energy orbit.

SpaceNews · Apr 13, 2026

Predicts

A pathfinder mission flies in 2027, with Viper OTX following in 2028

Due

During 2027

Where it stands

The replacement for the 2026 target above, under an expanded Space Force agreement. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Gravitics's record →

SpaceX Pending

We expect to begin deploying our orbital AI compute satellites as early as 2028.

SEC EDGAR, 424B4 prospectus · Jun 12, 2026

Predicts

Deployment of orbital AI compute satellites, the data-center constellation the prospectus is built around, begins in 2028

Due

As early as 2028

Where it stands

The claim anchors the AI story in the offering document, which mentions AI 1,026 times against 63 mentions of Mars. Nothing in the launch record yet shows a compute-satellite mission. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

SpaceX on our scoreboard → SPCX on the business desk →

Avio Pending

He said Avio is targeting a first launch of Vega E in 2027 or 2028.

Giulio Ranzo, CEO · SpaceNews · Dec 19, 2024

Predicts

First launch of the Vega E rocket occurs in 2027 or 2028

Due

2027 or 2028

Where it stands

Stated alongside the ESA development contracts for Vega E. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Their record here →

Agile Space Industries Pending

TEC will integrate an undisclosed number of the CO-based propulsion startup's DS250 bipropellant rocket thrusters into the outer mold line of the Nyx spacecraft for TEC's upcoming ISS supply run in 2028.

Payload · Aug 12, 2025

Predicts

Agile DS250 thrusters fly on The Exploration Company's Nyx ISS resupply mission in 2028

Due

During 2028

Where it stands

Contracted; the mission is two years out. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Airbus Defence and Space Pending

Airbus is working with TAS, ESA and NASA to maintain and upgrade various elements of the Rosalind Franklin rover in preparation for its planned launch in 2028 on a NASA supplied launcher. The rover is planned to touchdown on the surface of Mars in 2030 to avoid landing during the planet's global dust season.

Airbus press release · Mar 29, 2025

Predicts

ExoMars Rosalind Franklin rover launches in 2028 and lands on Mars in 2030

Due

During 2028

Where it stands

On a NASA-supplied launcher, with the Mars landing planned for 2030. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Their record here →

Maxar Space Systems Pending

EchoStar XXVI is scheduled for delivery in 2028.

Maxar Space Systems press release (via SatNews) · Jun 2, 2025

Predicts

EchoStar XXVI delivered to EchoStar in 2028

Due

During 2028

Where it stands

The company was renamed Lanteris in October 2025; the delivery date rides the contract. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)

Their record here →

Voyager Technologies Pending

Starship, SpaceX's fully reusable transportation system designed to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars and beyond, will launch Starlab in a single mission prior to the decommissioning of the International Space Station.

Starlab Space press release · Jan 31, 2024

Predicts

The complete Starlab station reaches orbit on one Starship flight before the ISS is retired

Due

Before ISS decommissioning

Where it stands

Company statements since have pointed at 2029. The station and the launch vehicle both have work left to do. (assessed Jul 27, 2026)