Friday, Oct 16, 2026 Updated Oct 16, 01:30 UTC

NewSpace RFP

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Special report

Five rockets on US and European launch contracts have not flown, and outside China 2 of 11 new companies' first rockets since 2020 reached orbit on their first flight

Rocket Lab moved Neutron's first launch to 2027 on October 14. Neutron, Stoke Space's Nova and Relativity's Terran R are on the Space Force's Lane 1 launch contract, and RFA One and PLD Space's Miura 5 hold European Space Agency contracts; none of the five has flown. Since January 2020, 11 companies outside China have launched a first orbital rocket: 2 reached orbit on the first flight, 4 reached it 8 to 17 months after a failed first flight, and 5 have not reached orbit.

A long exposure at night: New Glenn's exhaust traces a bright arc from the launch pad at the right edge of the frame into a dark blue sky.
A long exposure of Blue Origin's New Glenn on its first flight, from Space Launch Complex 36 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida, on January 16, 2025. Photo: U.S. Space Force/Samuel Becker.

Rocket Lab said on October 14 that the first launch of Neutron, its medium-lift rocket, is now expected in 2027. It is the fourth year named for that launch. Rocket Lab aimed for 2024 when it announced the rocket in March 2021, and the desk's ledger holds its later targets: the end of 2025, stated in August 2025, and the fourth quarter of 2026, stated in February. Rocket Lab is one of seven providers on the Space Force's National Security Space Launch Phase 3 Lane 1 contract, and Neutron is one of five rockets on US and European government launch contracts that have not flown.

This report sets those contracts beside the desk's launch record from January 2020 to October 15, 2026: how the first flights of new rockets went, how first-flight dates stated in advance compared with the flights, and what the Claims & outcomes ledger records about rocket schedules.

Five rockets on US and European launch contracts have not flown

Lane 1 is the Space Force's contract for national security launches that can carry more risk. Space Systems Command picked SpaceX, United Launch Alliance and Blue Origin in June 2024, added Rocket Lab and Stoke Space in March 2025, and added Impulse Space and Relativity Space's Relativity Federal on July 8, 2026, each of the last two with a $5 million task order for risk and capability assessments. On July 17 the Space Force raised the contract's ceiling from $5.6 billion to $17 billion, and a Space Systems Command spokesperson put the expected missions at about 170, up from 60. The contract runs from 2025 to 2034, a five-year base period and a five-year option. The acting portfolio acquisition executive for space access said the Lane 1 providers can compete for missions "as soon as they've successfully launched at least once." The rockets and stage that the four added since 2025 offer have not launched: Neutron, Stoke's Nova, Relativity's Terran R and Impulse's Helios, an upper stage designed to fly on a medium-lift rocket.

Lane 2 carries the most demanding missions. Its three providers, SpaceX, ULA and Blue Origin, share about 54 missions that launch from 2027 to 2032. For fiscal 2026 the Space Force assigned five to SpaceX for $714 million and two to ULA for $428 million, the Congressional Research Service reports, and Blue Origin received none. Blue Origin's New Glenn first flew on January 16, 2025 and has flown 3 times, reaching orbit on 2 of them; the third flight, on April 19, 2026, failed, and the vehicle for the fourth exploded during a static fire on May 28. Blue Origin's chief executive said in June that New Glenn would return to flight by the end of 2026.

The European Space Agency signed the first European Launcher Challenge contracts on August 27, 2026: €197.8 million for Isar Aerospace, €186.9 million for Rocket Factory Augsburg and €158.9 million for PLD Space, released as milestones are met. ESA said its award to MaiaSpace was nearing completion. Each provider must achieve an orbital launch before 2028. Isar's Spectrum reached orbit on its second flight on September 5, 2026, nine days after the signing, and ESA said the flight made Isar the first provider to reach that milestone. In late July, after its first week of testing on the pad in Scotland, RFA de-stacked its first RFA One to investigate an issue with the vehicle and gave no new date; ESA wrote on September 23 that hot-fire tests of the complete rocket on the pad would come before its first test flight. PLD Space said in June that Miura 5 would make its first flight before the end of 2026. MaiaSpace told European Spaceflight in July that it targets the second half of 2027 for Maia's first launch, an orbital attempt with no suborbital test before it.

NASA's Launch Services II contract, which buys launches for NASA missions, has an ordering period through June 2030 and admits new launch services once a year. NASA added Terran R on September 9 and New Glenn 9×4, a New Glenn configuration with no flight in the record, on September 29. The 2026 on-ramp notice in the desk's index says the request for proposals stays open until June 30, 2030.

Canada's defense department announced on March 16, 2026 a 10-year, C$200 million lease of a launch pad near Canso, Nova Scotia, run by Maritime Launch Services and due at initial operating capability by the end of 2026. Canada's Budget 2025 set aside C$182.6 million over three years for a sovereign launch program, and the department has C$105 million in grants through Launch the North, a contest in its IDEaS innovation program aimed at an initial light-lift launch capability by 2028. The first round conditionally approved C$8.3 million each for NordSpace, Canada Rocket Company and Reaction Dynamics. None of the three companies has a launch in the desk's record.

Rocket or stageBuilderProgramIn the launch record to October 15, 2026Latest stated first flight (date reported)
NeutronRocket LabNSSL Lane 1Not flown2027 (October 14, 2026)
NovaStoke SpaceNSSL Lane 1Not flownearly 2027 (September 8, 2026)
Terran RRelativity SpaceNSSL Lane 1, NASA NLS IINot flownas soon as late 2026 (March 10, 2025)
Helios (upper stage)Impulse SpaceNSSL Lane 1Not flown2027 (June 3, 2026)
RFA OneRocket Factory AugsburgESA Launcher ChallengeNot flownnone stated since the vehicle was de-stacked in late July (July 31, 2026)
Miura 5PLD SpaceESA Launcher ChallengeNot flownbefore the end of 2026 (September 1, 2026)
MaiaMaiaSpaceESA Launcher Challenge, award pending on August 27, 2026Not flownsecond half of 2027 (July 29, 2026)
SpectrumIsar AerospaceESA Launcher ChallengeFlown 2 times; first reached orbit September 5, 2026
New GlennBlue OriginNSSL Lane 1, NSSL Lane 2, NASA NLS IIFlown 3 times; first reached orbit January 16, 2025return to flight by the end of 2026 (June 2, 2026)

The European deadline for an orbital launch is the end of 2027

The Launcher Challenge is the one program here with a date for a first orbital launch. MaiaSpace's target, the second half of 2027, falls in the last six months before that deadline, and RFA has given no date since July. Lane 1 ties competition to a first successful launch, and its five-year base period and five-year option run to 2034. Canada's contest aims at a light-lift capability by 2028.

Program windows20252026202720282029203020312032203320342035NSSL Lane 1base period and optionNSSL Lane 1: base period and option, 2025 to 2034, base and option2025 to 2034, base and optionNSSL Lane 2launchesNSSL Lane 2: launches, 2027 to 20322027 to 2032NASA NLS IIordering periodNASA NLS II: ordering period, through June 2030through June 2030ESA Launcher Challengeorbit required before 2028ESA Launcher Challenge: orbit required before 2028, deadline end of 2027deadline end of 2027Launch the Northlight lift by 2028Launch the North: light lift by 2028, funded to March 2028funded to March 2028Latest stated first-flight targetsNeutronRocket LabNeutron (Rocket Lab): 20272027NovaStoke SpaceNova (Stoke Space): early 2027early 2027Terran RRelativity SpaceTerran R (Relativity Space): as soon as late 2026as soon as late 2026Helios (upper stage)Impulse SpaceHelios (upper stage) (Impulse Space): 20272027RFA OneRocket Factory Augsburgnone stated since the vehicle was de-stacked in late JulyMiura 5PLD SpaceMiura 5 (PLD Space): before the end of 2026before the end of 2026MaiaMaiaSpaceMaia (MaiaSpace): second half of 2027second half of 2027New GlennBlue OriginNew Glenn (Blue Origin): return to flight by the end of 2026return to flight by the end of 2026October 15, 2026
Program windows202520272029203120332035NSSL Lane 1base period and optionNSSL Lane 1: base period and option, 2025 to 2034, base and option2025 to 2034, base and optionNSSL Lane 2launchesNSSL Lane 2: launches, 2027 to 20322027 to 2032NASA NLS IIordering periodNASA NLS II: ordering period, through June 2030through June 2030ESA Launcher Challengeorbit required before 2028ESA Launcher Challenge: orbit required before 2028, deadline end of 2027deadline end of 2027Launch the Northlight lift by 2028Launch the North: light lift by 2028, funded to March 2028funded to March 2028Latest stated first-flight targetsNeutronRocket LabNeutron (Rocket Lab): 20272027NovaStoke SpaceNova (Stoke Space): early 2027early 2027Terran RRelativity SpaceTerran R (Relativity Space): as soon as late 2026as soon as late 2026Helios (upper stage)Impulse SpaceHelios (upper stage) (Impulse Space): 20272027RFA OneRocket Factory Augsburgno date statedMiura 5PLD SpaceMiura 5 (PLD Space): before the end of 2026before the end of 2026MaiaMaiaSpaceMaia (MaiaSpace): second half of 2027second half of 2027New GlennBlue OriginNew Glenn (Blue Origin): return to flight by the end of 2026return to flight by the end of 2026October 15, 2026
Program windows in blue. In gold, the target each builder last stated for its rocket's first flight (for New Glenn, its return to flight) as of October 15, 2026, with the builder's words beside each bar. The desk draws those words as periods: a year fills the whole year, "early" fills January to June, "late" fills July to December, and a deadline such as "before the end of 2026" or "by the end of 2026" fills the last quarter before it. The dashed line is October 15, 2026. Each target in the table above links to its source, and each program term to its source in the text.

Outside China, 2 of 11 new companies' first rockets since 2020 reached orbit on their first flight

Between January 2020 and October 15, 2026, 11 companies outside China launched the first orbital rocket they had built. Two reached orbit on the first flight: Blue Origin's New Glenn on January 16, 2025 and Skyroot Aerospace's Vikram-I on July 18, 2026. Four failed on the first flight and reached orbit on a later one: Virgin Orbit's LauncherOne after 8 months, Astra's Rocket 3 after 14, Firefly's Alpha after 13 and Isar's Spectrum after 17. Five have not reached orbit: ABL Space Systems' RS1 and Relativity's Terran 1, each flown once, in January and March 2023; Space One's KAIROS, which has failed on all 3 of its flights; Gilmour Space's Eris, flown once in July 2025; and Innospace's HANBIT-Nano, flown once in December 2025.

Across all builders, 38 new orbital rockets made a first flight in the same period, and 19 reached orbit on it. Of the 38 rockets, 15 were Chinese, and 11 of those reached orbit on their first flight. Of the 23 from elsewhere, 8 did, and 6 of those 8 came from government agencies, armed services or companies that had launched to orbit before: Qased, SLS, Mir, Vulcan, Ariane 6 and Soyuz-5.

A flight counts here as reaching orbit when the record marks it a full success, the launch scorecard's rule for a payload placed in its intended orbit. The record marks Firefly's October 1, 2022 flight a success; SpaceNews reported that its payloads went to a lower orbit than planned and reentered within days. Starship's first flight, on April 20, 2023, is marked a failure; its first 13 flights followed planned suborbital paths, and Flight 14 reached orbit on September 28, 2026.

Legend: reached orbitreached orbitLegend: did not reach orbitdid not reach orbitFirst orbital rockets of companies outside China20202021202220232024202520262027LauncherOne, Virgin OrbitLauncherOne: reached orbit on January 17, 2021, 8 months after the first flight8 monthsLauncherOne (Virgin Orbit): first flight May 25, 2020, did not reach orbitRocket 3, AstraRocket 3: reached orbit on November 20, 2021, 14 months after the first flight14 monthsRocket 3 (Astra Space): first flight September 12, 2020, did not reach orbitFirefly Alpha, FireflyFirefly Alpha: reached orbit on October 1, 2022, 13 months after the first flight13 monthsFirefly Alpha (Firefly Aerospace): first flight September 3, 2021, did not reach orbitRS1, ABLhas not reached orbitRS1 (ABL Space Systems): first flight January 10, 2023, did not reach orbitTerran 1, Relativityhas not reached orbitTerran 1 (Relativity Space): first flight March 23, 2023, did not reach orbitKAIROS, Space Onehas not reached orbitKAIROS (Space One): first flight March 13, 2024, did not reach orbitNew Glenn, Blue OriginNew Glenn (Blue Origin): first flight January 16, 2025, reached orbitSpectrum, IsarSpectrum: reached orbit on September 5, 2026, 17 months after the first flight17 monthsSpectrum (Isar Aerospace): first flight March 30, 2025, did not reach orbitEris, Gilmourhas not reached orbitEris (Gilmour Space Technologies): first flight July 29, 2025, did not reach orbitHANBIT-Nano, Innospacehas not reached orbitHANBIT-Nano (Innospace): first flight December 23, 2025, did not reach orbitVikram-I, SkyrootVikram-I (Skyroot Aerospace): first flight July 18, 2026, reached orbitEvery other new rocket, by the builder's home20202021202220232024202520262027United States2 of 3 first timeSLS (NASA, United States): first flight November 16, 2022, reached orbitStarship (SpaceX, United States): first flight April 20, 2023, did not reach orbitVulcan (United Launch Alliance, United States): first flight January 8, 2024, reached orbitEurope1 of 1 first timeAriane 6 (Arianespace, Europe): first flight July 9, 2024, reached orbitJapan0 of 1 first timeH3 (Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Japan): first flight March 7, 2023, did not reach orbitSouth Korea1 of 2 first timeNuri (KARI, South Korea): first flight October 21, 2021, did not reach orbitMir (Agency for Defense Development, South Korea): first flight December 4, 2023, reached orbitIndia0 of 1 first timeSSLV (ISRO, India): first flight August 7, 2022, did not reach orbitRussia1 of 1 first timeSoyuz-5 (RKK Energiya, Russia): first flight April 30, 2026, reached orbitIran1 of 2 first timeQased (IRGC Aerospace Force, Iran): first flight April 22, 2020, reached orbitQaem 100 (IRGC Aerospace Force, Iran): first flight March 4, 2023, did not reach orbitNorth Korea0 of 1 first timeChollima-1 (NATA, North Korea): first flight May 30, 2023, did not reach orbitChina11 of 15 first timeKuaizhou 11 (ExPace, China): first flight July 10, 2020, did not reach orbitCeres-1 (Galactic Energy, China): first flight November 7, 2020, reached orbitLong March 8 (CASC, China): first flight December 22, 2020, reached orbitKinetica 1 (CAS Space, China): first flight July 27, 2022, reached orbitSmart Dragon 3 (China Rocket Co., China): first flight December 9, 2022, reached orbitZhuque-2 (LandSpace, China): first flight December 14, 2022, did not reach orbitTianlong-2 (Space Pioneer, China): first flight April 2, 2023, reached orbitGravity-1 (Orienspace, China): first flight January 11, 2024, reached orbitLong March 12 (CASC, China): first flight November 30, 2024, reached orbitZhuque-3 (LandSpace, China): first flight December 3, 2025, reached orbitCeres-2 (Galactic Energy, China): first flight January 17, 2026, did not reach orbitKinetica 2 (CAS Space, China): first flight March 30, 2026, reached orbitTianlong-3 (Space Pioneer, China): first flight April 3, 2026, did not reach orbitLong March 10 (CASC, China): first flight July 10, 2026, reached orbitPallas-1 (Galactic Energy, China): first flight September 1, 2026, reached orbit
Legend: reached orbitreached orbitLegend: did not reach orbitdid not reach orbitFirst orbital rockets of companies outside China20202021202220232024202520262027LauncherOneVirgin OrbitLauncherOne: reached orbit on January 17, 2021, 8 months after the first flight8 monthsLauncherOne (Virgin Orbit): first flight May 25, 2020, did not reach orbitRocket 3AstraRocket 3: reached orbit on November 20, 2021, 14 months after the first flight14 monthsRocket 3 (Astra Space): first flight September 12, 2020, did not reach orbitFirefly AlphaFireflyFirefly Alpha: reached orbit on October 1, 2022, 13 months after the first flight13 monthsFirefly Alpha (Firefly Aerospace): first flight September 3, 2021, did not reach orbitRS1ABLRS1 (ABL Space Systems): first flight January 10, 2023, did not reach orbitTerran 1RelativityTerran 1 (Relativity Space): first flight March 23, 2023, did not reach orbitKAIROSSpace OneKAIROS (Space One): first flight March 13, 2024, did not reach orbitNew GlennBlue OriginNew Glenn (Blue Origin): first flight January 16, 2025, reached orbitSpectrumIsarSpectrum: reached orbit on September 5, 2026, 17 months after the first flight17 monthsSpectrum (Isar Aerospace): first flight March 30, 2025, did not reach orbitErisGilmourEris (Gilmour Space Technologies): first flight July 29, 2025, did not reach orbitHANBIT-NanoInnospaceHANBIT-Nano (Innospace): first flight December 23, 2025, did not reach orbitVikram-ISkyrootVikram-I (Skyroot Aerospace): first flight July 18, 2026, reached orbitEvery other new rocket, by the builder's home20202021202220232024202520262027United States2 of 3 first timeSLS (NASA, United States): first flight November 16, 2022, reached orbitStarship (SpaceX, United States): first flight April 20, 2023, did not reach orbitVulcan (United Launch Alliance, United States): first flight January 8, 2024, reached orbitEurope1 of 1 first timeAriane 6 (Arianespace, Europe): first flight July 9, 2024, reached orbitJapan0 of 1 first timeH3 (Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Japan): first flight March 7, 2023, did not reach orbitSouth Korea1 of 2 first timeNuri (KARI, South Korea): first flight October 21, 2021, did not reach orbitMir (Agency for Defense Development, South Korea): first flight December 4, 2023, reached orbitIndia0 of 1 first timeSSLV (ISRO, India): first flight August 7, 2022, did not reach orbitRussia1 of 1 first timeSoyuz-5 (RKK Energiya, Russia): first flight April 30, 2026, reached orbitIran1 of 2 first timeQased (IRGC Aerospace Force, Iran): first flight April 22, 2020, reached orbitQaem 100 (IRGC Aerospace Force, Iran): first flight March 4, 2023, did not reach orbitNorth Korea0 of 1 first timeChollima-1 (NATA, North Korea): first flight May 30, 2023, did not reach orbitChina11 of 15 first timeKuaizhou 11 (ExPace, China): first flight July 10, 2020, did not reach orbitCeres-1 (Galactic Energy, China): first flight November 7, 2020, reached orbitLong March 8 (CASC, China): first flight December 22, 2020, reached orbitKinetica 1 (CAS Space, China): first flight July 27, 2022, reached orbitSmart Dragon 3 (China Rocket Co., China): first flight December 9, 2022, reached orbitZhuque-2 (LandSpace, China): first flight December 14, 2022, did not reach orbitTianlong-2 (Space Pioneer, China): first flight April 2, 2023, reached orbitGravity-1 (Orienspace, China): first flight January 11, 2024, reached orbitLong March 12 (CASC, China): first flight November 30, 2024, reached orbitZhuque-3 (LandSpace, China): first flight December 3, 2025, reached orbitCeres-2 (Galactic Energy, China): first flight January 17, 2026, did not reach orbitKinetica 2 (CAS Space, China): first flight March 30, 2026, reached orbitTianlong-3 (Space Pioneer, China): first flight April 3, 2026, did not reach orbitLong March 10 (CASC, China): first flight July 10, 2026, reached orbitPallas-1 (Galactic Energy, China): first flight September 1, 2026, reached orbit
Each dot is the first flight of a new orbital rocket in the desk's launch record, January 2020 to October 15, 2026. A line joins a failed first flight to the rocket's first flight that reached orbit. Versions of rockets that flew before (Vulcan VC4S, Ariane 64, Long March 7A and others) are left out; the method below gives the rule.

Four rockets first flew 27 to 49 months after the end of the earliest target year the desk found

ULA unveiled Vulcan in April 2015 with a first launch slated for 2019; it first flew on January 8, 2024. ESA's ministers approved Ariane 6 in December 2014 for a first launch in 2020; it flew on July 9, 2024. In July 2018 Ars Technica listed four large rockets with first launches scheduled for 2020: Ariane 6, NASA's Space Launch System, New Glenn and Vulcan. SLS first flew in November 2022, Vulcan and Ariane 6 in 2024 and New Glenn in January 2025. Isar Aerospace was targeting 2022 for Spectrum's first launch when Ars Technica reported on the company in September 2020; Spectrum first flew on March 30, 2025. Counted from the last day of the earliest target year the desk found for each, the first flights of Vulcan, Ariane 6, New Glenn and Spectrum came 48, 42, 49 and 27 months after it. For New Glenn the earliest target the desk found is the 2020 date in the July 2018 report; Blue Origin's 2016 statement is listed below among what the desk could not confirm.

Two rockets on Lane 1 have passed the earliest target year the desk found for them without flying. Relativity said in June 2021 that Terran R should be ready for launch in 2024; in April 2023 the company gave 2026, and in March 2025 it said as soon as late 2026. Neutron's four years are listed above. As of October 15, 2026, 21 months have passed since the end of 2024, the year each builder named when it announced its rocket. Ars Technica reported that Rocket Lab traces the latest delay to voids in a carbon composite propellant dome for the first stage, which followed a design change made after a first-stage tank ruptured in a pressure test in January. Rocket Lab's chief executive said the company expects to finish testing those parts before the end of the first quarter of 2027 and to set a launch date then.

a period named as the first-flight targetLegend: first flight reached orbitfirst flightLegend: first flight did not reach orbitfailed first flight201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028October 15, 2026Vulcan, United Launch AllianceVulcan: on April 13, 2015, first flight targeted for 2019Vulcan: on July 24, 2018, first flight targeted for 202048 monthsVulcan: first flight January 8, 2024, reached orbitAriane 6, ArianeGroup and ESAAriane 6: on December 2, 2014, first flight targeted for 2020Ariane 6: on July 24, 2018, first flight targeted for 202042 monthsAriane 6: first flight July 9, 2024, reached orbitNew Glenn, Blue OriginNew Glenn: on July 24, 2018, first flight targeted for 2020New Glenn: on February 25, 2021, first flight targeted for late 202249 monthsNew Glenn: first flight January 16, 2025, reached orbitSpectrum, Isar AerospaceSpectrum: on September 21, 2020, first flight targeted for 202227 monthsSpectrum: reached orbit on September 5, 2026Spectrum: first flight March 30, 2025, did not reach orbitNeutron, Rocket LabNeutron: on March 1, 2021, first flight targeted for 2024Neutron: on August 7, 2025, first flight targeted for end of 2025Neutron: on February 26, 2026, first flight targeted for Q4 2026Neutron: on October 14, 2026, first flight targeted for 2027not flown, 21 monthsTerran R, Relativity SpaceTerran R: on June 8, 2021, first flight targeted for 2024Terran R: on April 12, 2023, first flight targeted for 2026Terran R: on March 10, 2025, first flight targeted for as soon as late 2026not flown, 21 months
a period named as the first-flight targetLegend: first flight reached orbitfirst flightLegend: first flight did not reach orbitfailed first flight20142016201820202022202420262028October 15, 2026VulcanUnited Launch AllianceVulcan: on April 13, 2015, first flight targeted for 2019Vulcan: on July 24, 2018, first flight targeted for 202048 monthsVulcan: first flight January 8, 2024, reached orbitAriane 6ArianeGroupAriane 6: on December 2, 2014, first flight targeted for 2020Ariane 6: on July 24, 2018, first flight targeted for 202042 monthsAriane 6: first flight July 9, 2024, reached orbitNew GlennBlue OriginNew Glenn: on July 24, 2018, first flight targeted for 2020New Glenn: on February 25, 2021, first flight targeted for late 202249 monthsNew Glenn: first flight January 16, 2025, reached orbitSpectrumIsar AerospaceSpectrum: on September 21, 2020, first flight targeted for 202227 monthsSpectrum: reached orbit on September 5, 2026Spectrum: first flight March 30, 2025, did not reach orbitNeutronRocket LabNeutron: on March 1, 2021, first flight targeted for 2024Neutron: on August 7, 2025, first flight targeted for end of 2025Neutron: on February 26, 2026, first flight targeted for Q4 2026Neutron: on October 14, 2026, first flight targeted for 2027not flown, 21 monthsTerran RRelativity SpaceTerran R: on June 8, 2021, first flight targeted for 2024Terran R: on April 12, 2023, first flight targeted for 2026Terran R: on March 10, 2025, first flight targeted for as soon as late 2026not flown, 21 months
Gray bars are the first-flight target periods the desk found for each rocket, in statements dated from December 2, 2014 to October 14, 2026. The months count from the last day of the earliest period found to the first flight, or to October 15, 2026 for a rocket that has not flown. Spectrum's line runs on to its first flight that reached orbit.

Of the ledger's 17 claims about rocket schedules, 6 are missed and none is achieved

The Claims & outcomes ledger records company statements and targets in the wording of the source it cites, a company's own release or a reporter's account, and checks them against the record. Of its 84 claims, 17 are about a rocket's launch dates, its launch rate or the start of its flights from a new site. This count leaves out claims about payloads that ride a rocket, such as AST SpaceMobile's satellites on New Glenn. As of October 15, 2026, 6 are missed, 3 superseded, 4 at risk, 3 pending and 1 unverified. Missed is a date comparison: the due date passed without the outcome. Superseded means the company gave a new date for the same commitment. For this report the desk marked Rocket Lab's fourth-quarter 2026 Neutron claim superseded, added the 2027 claim from the October 14 filing, and updated six other assessments with the record as of October 15, 2026.

CompanyWhat the claim expectsDueStatus
Rocket LabNeutron's first launch before the end of 2025End of 2025Missed
Rocket LabNeutron's first launch in the fourth quarter of 2026Q4 2026Superseded
Rocket LabNeutron's first launch during 20272027Pending
Relativity SpaceTerran R makes its first launch from Cape Canaveral by late 2026Late 2026At risk
Stoke SpaceLaunch Complex 14 at Cape Canaveral is activated and ready for Nova operations in early 2026Early 2026Unverified
Impulse SpaceThe first Helios kick-stage mission flies on a Falcon 9, carrying a Mira vehicle toward GEOMid-2026Superseded
Isar AerospaceSpectrum's second flight, the qualification flight for commercial service, launches on or shortly after January 21, 2026Late January 2026Missed
AvioFour Vega C launches completed during calendar 2025End of 2025Missed
AvioFirst launch of the Vega E rocket occurs in 2027 or 20282027 or 2028Pending
ArianespaceFive Ariane 6 launches completed during calendar 2025, starting with a February flightEnd of 2025Missed
ArianespaceSix to eight Ariane 6 launches completed during calendar 2026During 2026Pending
United Launch AllianceA two-launches-per-month Vulcan tempo before the end of 2025End of 2025Missed
United Launch AllianceBetween 20 and 25 ULA launches during calendar 2026During 2026At risk
Blue OriginA double-digit New Glenn launch count, around 12 flights, during 2026During 2026At risk
Blue OriginNew Glenn flies again after the May 28 static-fire explosion, on or before December 31, 2026End of 2026At risk
SSC (Swedish Space Corporation)Perigee's Blue Whale 1 begins launching satellites from Esrange in 2025Starting 2025Missed
SSC (Swedish Space Corporation)Firefly Alpha performs its first orbital launch from Esrange during 2026During 2026Superseded

Open job postings rose at Rocket Lab, Relativity and Isar from July to October

The site's job feed reads the public job boards of Rocket Lab, Relativity Space and Isar Aerospace. Open postings at Rocket Lab went from 384 on July 24, 2026 to 597 on October 15, 2026, at Relativity from 341 to 365, and at Isar from 95 to 115. Blue Origin is left out of the chart because the feed reads at most 300 of its postings a day. Stoke Space, Impulse Space, Firefly, RFA, PLD Space and MaiaSpace are outside the feed.

0200400600Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1Rocket Lab: 384 open postings on July 24, 2026, 597 on October 15, 2026Relativity Space: 341 open postings on July 24, 2026, 365 on October 15, 2026Isar Aerospace: 95 open postings on July 24, 2026, 115 on October 15, 2026597 Rocket Lab384365 Relativity341115 Isar95
0200400600Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1Rocket Lab: 384 open postings on July 24, 2026, 597 on October 15, 2026Relativity Space: 341 open postings on July 24, 2026, 365 on October 15, 2026Isar Aerospace: 95 open postings on July 24, 2026, 115 on October 15, 2026597 Rocket Lab384365 Relativity341115 Isar95
Postings the site's job feed counted as open each day, rebuilt from the first and last day the feed saw each posting, July 24, 2026 to October 15, 2026.

The desk could not confirm seven dates, statuses and contract details

This report draws on the sources and data below.

Launches, dates and outcomes are from the desk's launch record: 1,324 entries for 2020 to 2025, backfilled once from Launch Library 2, and 302 entries for 2026, read daily. Of the 1,626 entries, 1,572 are launches with a recorded outcome, the last on October 14, 2026; the rest are scheduled or listed launches. Each of the 135 rocket configurations whose first entry is in 2020 or later was labeled in a first reading, made by the model that drafted this report, as a new rocket, a version of an earlier rocket, a rocket that first flew before 2020, or a suborbital vehicle, with the builder's home and whether the rocket was the builder's first attempt at orbit. A rocket counts as new when no rocket of the same name had flown before; a letter or configuration suffix, as in Vulcan VC4S, Ariane 64, Long March 7A or Vega-C, marks a version. A second reading, by a separate model run that read each configuration on its own without the first labels, agreed on the kind for 131 of 135 (97 percent), on membership of the set of new companies' first rockets outside China for 135 of 135, on the builder's home for 39 of 39 new rockets and on the builder's class for 38 of 39; two labels changed after the disagreements were read, and neither changes a count. Months are days divided by 30.44, rounded. First-flight targets are from Spaceflight Now (April 2015, June 2021), ESA (December 2014), Ars Technica (July 2018, September 2020, October 2026), SpaceNews (February 2021), CNBC (April 2023) and the ledger. Program terms are from Breaking Defense, Via Satellite, the Congressional Research Service, ESA, NASA, the desk's copy of the 2026 NLS II notice and Canada's defense department. Vehicle status is from Rocket Lab's October 14 filing, Ars Technica, The Register, Spaceflight Now, European Spaceflight, ESA, Impulse Space, SpaceNews, the desk's Starship report of October 1 and the ledger. The set of first rockets from new companies outside China holds 11 rockets. Job postings are from the site's feed, which records the first and last day it saw each posting; a posting counts as open on every day between. An outside model reviewed the draft against these sources before publication.